ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 SATELLITE DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME...A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING TO THE CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HWRF. GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE...IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 19.7N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 19.7N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 19.5N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 19.3N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.3N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 20.7N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 22.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:04 UTC