ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 800 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012 PAUL IS INTENSIFYING. THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. AN EYE SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY EARLIER HAS BECOME INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES AT 1200 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. PAUL HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR 23N 118W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER 48 HOURS...PAUL SHOULD DECELERATE AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTARD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND HAS AGAIN SHIFTED FARTHER EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS NOT QUITE AS FAR EAST AS THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH PAUL ARE ALREADY GRADUALLY DECREASING...ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OF PAUL AND EVEN COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING COULD BECOME MORE RAPID AFTER 48 HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND THE CYCLONE COULD DECOUPLE AT THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION. THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...ALONG WITH THE FORECAST WIND RADII...REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND AN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.3N 114.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 19.1N 114.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 21.6N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 24.2N 113.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 26.0N 114.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 28.4N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:43 UTC