ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012 200 PM PDT MON OCT 08 2012 SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON OLIVIA. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND 1400 UTC. SINCE THEN...THE STORM HAS DECOUPLED FURTHER...AND THE CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI AWAY FROM THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY THIS CYCLE...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 40 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NOW CALLS FOR OLIVIA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES... OLIVIA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW EVEN SOONER. THE STORM HAS MOVED LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A WEST TO WEST- SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF OLIVIA BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 16.3N 121.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 16.4N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 16.3N 122.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 16.0N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1800Z 15.6N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z 14.7N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:41 UTC