ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012 800 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2012 SATELLITE IMAGES AND A TRMM OVERPASS AROUND 1000 UTC INDICATE THAT OLIVIA IS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY WERE EARLIER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT. GIVEN THE CURRENT ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE OF OLIVIA...AND BECAUSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING. OLIVIA WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...WHEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS COMPLETELY DECOUPLED. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT OLIVIA HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT RECENTLY...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/3. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STORM REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY AS OLIVIA WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 16.6N 121.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.8N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 16.8N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 16.6N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 16.2N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 15.2N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:41 UTC