ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012 IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE STRUCTURE AND PRECISE LOCATION OF OLIVIA IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING. THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A SOUTHWEST-TO- NORTHEAST TILT BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE RESOLUTION OF THE DATA DO NOT ALLOW A CLEAR PEEK OF THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF THIS SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THIS AFTERNOON...AND A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT. THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING OLIVIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM...SO THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AS IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. IN A DAY OR SO...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE LIKELY TO DECOUPLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS OLIVIA REACHING PEAK INTENSITY VERY SOON AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE NHC FORECAST PREDICTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OLIVIA IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF OLIVIA TO DECREASE. AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM... IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 16.2N 120.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 16.8N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 17.3N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 17.4N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 17.2N 122.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 16.9N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z 16.0N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:41 UTC