ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152012 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2012 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ENOUGH CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION FOR THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IN FACT...BOTH TAFB AND SAB INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN LEAVING THE DEPRESSION IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON THE GENERAL SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. VISIBLE IMAGES AND PERHAPS MICROWAVE DATA LATER TODAY WILL GIVE US A BETTER DESCRIPTION OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. SOME ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE NECESSARY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.0N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 15.0N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 16.0N 122.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 16.5N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 16.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z 16.5N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:41 UTC