ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2012 NORMAN HAS LACKED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SINCE 0400 UTC...AND IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN SOON IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE ONLY AREA OF NOTABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO A DISORGANIZED BAND ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUASAVE MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 25 KT. DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NORMAN...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA PENNISULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE BAMS MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 26.2N 110.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 26.4N 111.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:40 UTC