ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142012 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012 IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF NORMAN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT MEXICAN RADAR FROM GUASAVE SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF ROTATION IS ABOUT 20 N MI OFF THE COAST OF SINALOA. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED...WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. BASED ON THIS...IT IS ASSUMED THAT NORMAN IS NO LONGER PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD CAUSE NORMAN TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDAY MORNING...IF NOT SOONER. NORMAN IS SLOWING DOWN AND HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 345/9 KT. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD CAUSE NORMAN TO SLOW DOWN FURTHER AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE SINCE SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL...SHOW NORMAN SKIRTING THE COAST AND TURNING WESTWARD BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. IF THAT HAPPENS...THE CHANCES FOR REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE EXTREMELY LOW. EVEN IF NORMAN DOES NOT ACTUALLY MAKE LANDFALL...MOST OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER IS LOCATED EAST OF THE CENTER AND WILL STILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS SINALOA AND WESTERN DURANGO THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 25.2N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 26.0N 109.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/0000Z 26.3N 109.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:40 UTC