ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122012 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012 A FEW HOURS AGO...SSMIS AND AMSU MICROWAVE DATA REVEALED AN EYE FEATURE. SINCE THAT TIME...CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE AND DEEP CONVECTON IS GRADUALLY DECREASING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INTENSITY TO 65 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LANE IS ALREADY MOVING OVER COOL WATERS...AND THE SHEAR IS INCREASING. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL...SHIPS...AND LGEM MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS OR EARLIER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/8. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS LANE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT WILL MOST LIKELY TURN TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 19.3N 127.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 20.3N 128.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 21.0N 129.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 21.5N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 21.5N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0600Z 20.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:35 UTC