ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012 THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. LATEST SSMI/SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A COMMA-SHAPED CONVECTIVE BAND. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BASICALLY THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY REACHING COOL WATERS...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 295/9. A WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL KRISTY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO MEANDER WITHIN WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE IS NOT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...IT IS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ONCE KRISTY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...THE GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE NHC TRACK FOLLOWS BAM SHALLOW...WHICH MORE APPROPIATELY DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 20.4N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 21.3N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 22.5N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 23.5N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 24.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z 26.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/1200Z 27.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:33 UTC