ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012 THERE ARE STILL SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 1800 UTC STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BUT SINCE THEN...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH...AND WINDS ARE PROBABLY DOWN TO 50 KNOTS. GILMA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND WEAKEN. MOST LIKELY...GILMA WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO. GILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS GENERAL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.2N 119.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 19.8N 119.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 20.5N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 21.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 21.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1800Z 22.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:23 UTC