ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012 FABIO HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS OWING TO A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -50C LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/09 KT. FABIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FABIO IS NOT LONG FOR THIS WORLD SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER SUB-20C SSTS AND INTO A STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND FABIO SHOULD BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY COMPLETE DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. ALTHOUGH THE SLOWER MOVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER 48 HOURS...THE DECOUPLED REMNANT MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 23.9N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 25.0N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 26.4N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/1200Z 27.6N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:20 UTC