ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012 FABIO HAS NOT YET BEGUN TO WEAKEN. THE HURRICANE REMAINS RATHER SYMMETRIC WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY CLOUD TOPS OF -50 TO -60 DEGREES CELSIUS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS AND A RECENT CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 90 KT. FABIO WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING. FABIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. THE TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FABIO IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD...AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA PRODUCES A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD. THE HWRF...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 16.9N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.4N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 18.3N 120.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 19.4N 121.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 20.6N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 23.3N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z 25.2N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z 26.0N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:20 UTC