ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012 CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE CENTER OF EMILIA. HOWEVER...ASCAT DATA FROM SHORTLY BEFORE 0600 UTC SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE STILL ABOUT 45 KT...SO THIS VALUE WILL STAY AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME LATER TODAY AS EMILIA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND GIVEN THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...THIS TRANSITION COULD OCCUR SOONER. EMILIA CONTINUES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TO THE WEST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT SPEED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT IS STEERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE NEW FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE... STAYING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.5N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 15.5N 132.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 15.6N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 15.6N 137.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 15.5N 140.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z 15.5N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0600Z 15.0N 153.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0600Z 15.0N 158.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:18 UTC