ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012 EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF A NEARLY CIRCULAR MASS OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.2/120 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN STEADY SINCE 0500 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 290/10 KT. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON EMILIA CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY DAY 4...HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT INTERACTS MORE WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERING LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS. COLD UPWELLING...WHICH IS A VERY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY GIVEN THAT UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 UNITS OR LESS...COULD INDUCE MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN INDICATED AFTER 36 HOURS HOURS WHEN HEAT CONTENT VALUES BENEATH THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ZERO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 13.5N 113.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 14.0N 114.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 14.6N 116.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 15.1N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 15.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 16.3N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 17.1N 128.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 17.7N 134.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:18 UTC