ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 200 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012 DANIEL IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC AND EXHIBITING WARMER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE SAB AND TAFB DVORAK FIXES HAVE DROPPED TO 3.5/4.0. LIKEWISE...THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 60 KT. THUS THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KT...MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH. DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TREK OF DANIEL AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DANIEL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT PROGRESSES OVER COOL 24-25C WATERS WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS VERY LOW. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE COMBINATION OF STABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND MORE HOSTILE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE DANIEL TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. THE GLOBAL MODELS LOSE THE VORTEX COMPLETELY BY DAY FIVE AND DISSIPATION IS INDICATED AT THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS STATISTICAL SCHEME AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN 1806Z ASCAT SATELLITE PASS ASSISTED WITH THE WIND RADII ANALYSIS FOR DANIEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 15.4N 130.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 15.5N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 15.5N 139.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 15.5N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 15.5N 147.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z 15.5N 154.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:15 UTC