ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012 200 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012 CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN RAGGED BANDS NEAR THE CENTER OF ALETTA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOW LONG THIS CONVECTION CAN PERSIST IS UNCERTAIN...SINCE ALETTA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS SHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR LESS. FINAL DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN 72-96 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. ALETTA HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/5. ALETTA IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH AS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.1N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.4N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 13.8N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 14.0N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 13.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z 13.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z 12.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:03 UTC