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Hurricane GORDON (Text)

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
500 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
 
GORDON REMAINS A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE
WEAKENED A LITTLE. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
VALUES LIKELY DUE TO A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE EYE AND A THINNING OF
THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE HURRICANE HAS NOW MOVED OVER
SUB-26C WATERS AND CURRENTLY LIES IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
WESTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
FURTHER ON THE EXPECTED TRACK AND BECAUSE GORDON IS ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE INTO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST.
POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN 2 TO 3
DAYS...WHEN THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SIGNIFICANTLY DECOUPLED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATING BY DAY 4...FOLLOWING THE GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
GORDON CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY EASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 KT. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES NEAR 40N/40W IS SWINGING
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE HURRICANE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...TAKING GORDON VERY NEAR SANTA
MARIA AND SAO MIGUEL ISLANDS IN THE EASTERN AZORES IN 18 TO 24
HOURS.  AFTER PASSING THE AZORES...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY AND TURN BACK TO THE EAST
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 34.9N  31.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 35.7N  28.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 37.2N  25.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 38.6N  22.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 39.4N  19.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  22/0600Z 39.7N  16.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
 
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