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Hurricane KENNETH (Text)

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HURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011
100 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011
 
THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF KENNETH HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE TODAY.
THE LARGE CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER
THIS MORNING HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
WITH AN EMBEDDED RAGGED EYE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED
TO 75 KT...BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM SAB AND
TAFB.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WARM WATER ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW KENNETH ATTAINING MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT COULD OCCUR
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.  AFTER 24 HOURS...GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WEAKENING SHOULD BE MORE RAPID AS WESTERLY
SHEAR INCREASES AND KENNETH MOVES OVER WATERS LESS THAN 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
 
THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED MORE WESTWARD
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS STILL
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER KENNETH
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IN 2-3 DAYS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THAT TIME FRAME AS
THE MODELS WHICH DEPICT A DEEPER CYCLONE SHOW A MORE POLEWARD
MOVEMENT.  THE ECMWF WHICH INITIALIZED KENNETH UNREALISTICALLY
WEAK...IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD TRACK OF A MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE.  SINCE
KENNETH HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME A DEEPER CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE GFS SOLUTION.
 
SHOULD KENNETH ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IT WOULD BE THE
LATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN THE
SATELLITE ERA.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 13.0N 110.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 13.1N 112.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 13.2N 114.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 13.5N 116.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 14.0N 117.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 15.1N 120.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 15.8N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 16.0N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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