ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122011 200 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011 SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH MEXICAN RADAR DATA OUT OF MOZOTAL AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION CROSSED THE COAST BETWEEN SALINA CRUZ AND ARRIAGA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. NOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS INLAND...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING...INDICATIVE THAT WEAKENING HAS ALREADY BEGUN. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD QUICKLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY WITHIN A BROAD MONSOON-TYPE GYRE OVER MEXICO WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INDICATE REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS. CENTER FIXES ARE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/06. THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IN A SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. VERY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA EVEN AFTER THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 16.3N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 16.8N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:20 UTC