ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011 1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2011 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 117.7W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 117.7W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.1N 116.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.0N 114.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.1N 112.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.6N 110.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.9N 107.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 17.1N 105.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 16.4N 103.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 117.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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