ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2011 DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED...AGAIN...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND 0600 UTC...AND IT HAS EXPANDED SINCE THAT TIME. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE. IRWIN COULD BE NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AGAIN...AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. HOWEVER...THE LONG-TERM TREND SHOULD BE FOR IRWIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...SHOWING IRWIN DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRWIN IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD... AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 230/4. THE STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW IRWIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...TO MEANDER IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT FIRST WESTWARD AND THEN BACK SOUTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 14.1N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 14.1N 108.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 14.2N 109.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 14.2N 109.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 14.1N 109.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1200Z 13.7N 108.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z 13.5N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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