ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011 JOVA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME CURVED BAND FEATURES FORMING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF SOME OVERSHOOTING TOPS NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE A RATHER WIDE SPREAD THIS MORNING... RANGING FROM ABOUT 40 KT FROM CIMSS AMSU TO 65 KT FROM TAFB. THE OVERALL MICROWAVE STRUCTURE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS ONLY RAISED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. JOVA SHOULD HAVE AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER...ALONG WITH WARM SSTS ALONG ITS PATH. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS BETWEEN THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS. THIS FORECAST COULD BE STILL ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE THE GFDL/HWRF MAKE JOVA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7 KT. JOVA IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWING DOWN AND TURNING TO THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND AN ERODING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER JOVA TOWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS... THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL...RESULTING IN A SPREAD OF 500 N MI BY DAY 4. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASING...IT IS BEST TO KEEP THE FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 13.7N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 14.4N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 15.2N 110.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.8N 110.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.6N 109.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 18.2N 107.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 20.5N 105.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:17 UTC