ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 200 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2011 A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN HILARY MEASURED A PEAK SURFACE WIND OF 44 KT FROM THE SFMR AND A 7000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 55 KT WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY RESET TO 45 KT. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1000 MB BASED ON DATA FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SECOND PASS THROUGH THE CENTER. HILARY IS ONLY PRODUCING ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. EVEN IF HILARY STOPS PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION SOON...IT COULD TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE WINDS TO FALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THIS IS NOTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE POST-TROPICAL DESIGNATION AT 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH BY 96 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT. HILARY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 32N BY 24 HOURS. THE RIDGE SHOULD FORCE THE REMNANT LOW WESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EVEN SUGGEST THAT HILARY COULD ACQUIRE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BEFORE IT DISSIPATES. MANY THANKS TO THE NOAA HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION AND AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS CENTER FOR THE DATA RECEIVED DURING THE RESEARCH MISSION. HOPEFULLY THIS DATA WILL GO A LONG WAY IN HELPING US PROVIDE BETTER INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATERS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 21.6N 120.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 22.5N 121.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 30/1800Z 23.4N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 01/0600Z 23.8N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1800Z 23.8N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 02/1800Z 23.5N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:16 UTC