ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 200 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2011 RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...MICROWAVE PASSES...AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF HILARY CONTINUES TO QUICKLY IMPROVE WITH AN EYE FEATURE NOTED. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND T3.5...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT. HILARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOVE OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATER IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE CORE REMAINS OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE AND PREDICTS HILARY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8 KT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HILARY IS FORECAST TO BUILD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH SHOW HILARY CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...TURN HILARY NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH INTO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET...GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF...WHICH ALL SHOW A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK INITIALLY...KEEP HILARY ON A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT LEAST THROUGH 120 HOURS. GIVEN THE NORTHWARD BIAS OF THE GFDL/HWRF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS SEASON...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION KEEPING HILARY MOVING MORE WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPDATED TRACK IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 SINCE HILARY SHOULD DECELERATE AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.7N 98.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 15.2N 99.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 15.9N 101.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 16.4N 102.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 16.9N 104.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 17.9N 108.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 18.5N 110.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 19.0N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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