ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072011 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2011 THE LAST FEW PIXELS OF -50C OR COLDER CLOUD TOPS WAS EVIDENT ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0600 UTC. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE STILL 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT THAT TIME...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GREG MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COOL 22C TO 23C WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF NO DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS...GREG WOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON. FOR A DECAYING SYSTEM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS... GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS SHOW GREG TAKING A DIVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE COMING DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND BAM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE GREG IS BECOMING A SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL SYSTEM...I WAS INCLINED TO FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE ECMWF AND BAM SHALLOW MODELS AND MOVED THE NHC TRACK FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALSO ENDING UP NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 20.2N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 20.4N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/0600Z 20.4N 124.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/1800Z 20.2N 125.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/0600Z 19.9N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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