ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062011 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED AGAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS IT DID 12 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES PARTIALLY SUPPORT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT I PREFER TO WAIT FOR THE CENTER TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...IF AT ALL...TO INCREASE THE WINDS. SINCE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE SYSTEM...ONLY A SMALL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COLD WATERS AND WEAKENS. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...AND NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BY THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL ESTABLISHED AND PERSISTENT DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FIVE DAYS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND TRACKS ARE REALLY FANNING OUT AFTER TWO DAYS MAKING THE FORECAST UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...BY THEN THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE READY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 12.4N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 12.4N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 12.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 12.5N 137.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 13.0N 138.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 14.0N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/0600Z 15.0N 149.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:15 UTC