ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022011 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011 THE APPEARANCE OF BEATRIZ ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME VERY RAGGED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SUBSTANTIALLY. BEATRIZ HAS LIKELY WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION EARLIER TODAY AND INGESTION OF DRY STABLE AIR ORIGINATING FROM MUCH COLDER WATERS TO THE WEST. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SUB-26C WATERS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...OR EARLIER IF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION LOSES DEFINITION. AS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF BEATRIZ HAS DISINTEGRATED...THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 275/10. THE LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MOTION AND THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS. EVEN AS BEATRIZ HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED AWAY FROM THE COAST...MOIST SOUTHERLY INFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 19.0N 106.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 19.1N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 19.1N 109.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 19.1N 110.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 19.1N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:12 UTC