ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011 A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ADRIAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY HAVE BRIEFLY HALTED THE WEAKENING PROCESS. SINCE THEN... HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON WANE. AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ADRIAN HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...OR 275/10. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ADRIAN WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARD NORTHWEST OR NORTH. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT GAIN IN LATITUDE SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY SINCE ADRIAN IS WEAKENING INTO A SHALLOW SYSTEM RATHER THAN MAINTAINING VERTICAL INTEGRITY LIKE MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ADRIAN HAS BEEN SHEARED MORE THAN 200 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. THE RESULT IS THAT ADRIAN AND ITS SHALLOW REMNANTS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES ALONG THE EXTREME LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. NOW THAT THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED... ADRIAN SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO COOLER SSTS...A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...AND INCREASING WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF MODEST CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING...WITH ADRIAN BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 18-24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 15.8N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 16.1N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 16.7N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1200Z 17.3N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0000Z 18.5N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:11 UTC