ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 800 PM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011 THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF ADRIAN HAS BEEN STEADILY ERODING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. TAFB AND SAB SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AS WELL AS UW-CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WERE 5.5/102 KT AT 00Z. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM SINCE THEN AND THE RATHER DISHEVELED-LOOKING CDO SUGGESTS THAT ADRIAN IS PROBABLY WEAKER. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION TOWARD COLDER WATERS FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. BY 72-96 HOURS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND ALLOW ADRIAN TO MOVE MORE POLEWARD. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY HAVE DECOUPLED DUE TO SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR AND COLD SSTS NEAR 22C....RESULTING IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES WHILE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE FORCED NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS. ADRIAN IS CURRENTLY OVER 26.5C SSTS AND COOLER WATERS LIE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. ALSO...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF COLDER SSTS AND HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE RATE OF WEAKENING COULD EVEN BE FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 96-120 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 15.6N 109.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 15.9N 110.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 16.7N 113.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 17.4N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 18.7N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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