ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 200 PM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011 THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF ADRIAN IS NOT AS SYMMETRIC THIS AFTERNOON AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE DROPPING. USING A BLEND OF ODT AND THE SUBJECTIVE DATA T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS PROVIDES AN INTENSITY OF 110 KT. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND BY LATE SATURDAY SHOULD BE OVER SUB-26C SSTS AS WELL AS BEING AFFECTED BY STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE WINDS DOWN GRADUALLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THEN WITH WEAKENING AT A FASTER RATE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN FOUR TO FIVE DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME OF THE MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS AND THE HURRICANE MODELS DRIVEN BY THE GFS...INDICATE A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DESPITE THE STRONG SHEAR AND HOSTILE THERMODYNAMICS. THIS FORECAST RELIES MORE UPON THE ECMWF...UKMET... AND NOGAPS MODELS...WHICH SHOW A WEAKER VORTEX MOVING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TRACK PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN MORE POLEWARD AT THREE AND FOUR DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 15.5N 108.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 15.9N 110.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 16.3N 111.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 16.7N 112.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 17.2N 113.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA NNNN
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