ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 800 AM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE STILL CONSISTS OF A DISTINCT EYE AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED...YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. WITH NO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ANTICIPATED...THE INTERACTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE STRONG SST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN CAUSE FOR ADRIAN TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. WEAKENING COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS LIKE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE ECMWF. ADRIAN CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE...THEREFORE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. IF ADRIAN REMAINS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT COULD ACQUIRE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDLESS...ADRIAN STILL WILL BE A WEAKENING CYCLONE MOVING OVER COOL WATERS WELL AWAY FROM MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 15.3N 107.6W 115 KT 135 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.6N 109.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 16.0N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 16.3N 112.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 16.8N 113.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 17.5N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 20.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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