ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011 200 PM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011 THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN ORGANIZED PATTERN OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND COVERING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ARE THE BASIS FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. SYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/3. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BEYOND THAT TIME...A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO IMPART A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5. THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN NORTHWARD TRACK BIASES AND THUS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN WEIGHTED LESS HEAVILY THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION... WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 11.7N 100.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 12.2N 100.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 12.8N 100.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 13.6N 101.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 14.5N 102.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 15.2N 104.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 16.0N 106.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI NNNN
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