ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2011 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOME...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS STILL AN EYE ON MICROWAVE DATA. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN NEAR 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM CIMSS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 48 HOURS OR EARLIER. PHILIPPE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 065 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES...PHILLIPE SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS PHILIPPE BECOMES AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE OR BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST DURING THE POST- TROPICAL STAGE OF PHILIPPE WAS PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 29.6N 56.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 30.5N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 32.5N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 36.0N 46.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 40.0N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z 44.0N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z 51.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z 61.0N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:08 UTC