ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172011 500 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2011 PHILIPPE IS A RARE CREATURE. IT HAS AN EYE FEATURE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONVECTION FOR THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS TO INDICATE HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN FACT...THESE ESTIMATES YIELD TO LOWER WINDS THAN EARLIER TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE IS A HURRICANE. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. I WOULD LOVE TO HAVE A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE TO REALLY KNOW THE TRUE INTENSITY OF PHILIPPE. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS THE SHEAR RELAXES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BEFORE IT BECOMES ATTACHED TO THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE TREND AND MAKES PHILLIPE A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO...BUT THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. PHILIPPE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE . IT APPEARS THAT IT HAS NOW BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AS IT REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE PHILIPPE TO SHARPLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR RECURVE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. PHILIPPE MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SINCE THIS IS THE TREND INDICATED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS HAVE PHILIPPE MEANDERING JUST SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 23.6N 58.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 23.5N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 23.8N 61.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 24.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 26.0N 62.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 27.5N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 08/0600Z 29.0N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/0600Z 32.0N 51.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:44:08 UTC