ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 500 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011 ...CORRECTED FOR TIME NOAA BUOY 41048 HAS PROVIDED VERY VALUABLE DATA IN ESTIMATING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF KATIA. AS THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE APPROACHED...THIS DATA BUOY REPORTED PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 76 KT. THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS REDUCED TO 970 MB...ALSO BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS BUOY. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KATIA WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE CYCLONE...OR WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY...FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED NORTHWARD...350/12...AS IT MOVES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND TO THE EAST OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE TRACK FORECAST OR THE REASONING BEHIND IT. A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS KATIA OR ITS POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. INDEED...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE NEARING THE NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 32.0N 70.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 33.9N 70.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 36.6N 68.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 39.2N 64.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 41.5N 57.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 48.5N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z 56.0N 19.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z 60.0N 5.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:53 UTC