ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM REMNANTS OF EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011 500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011 SINCE ITS INCEPTION...EMILY NEVER HAD A PARTICULARLY ROBUST LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA CONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FURTHER DEGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE TODAY. SATELLITE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EMILY NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION....AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 75W. THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS FORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA. THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVER HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. EVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 19.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jul-2012 13:43:45 UTC