ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112010 400 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010 AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1920 UTC INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER THAT IS CLOSELY SURROUNDED BY SEVERAL CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION. ADVISORIES ARE THEREFORE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLOW 315/2 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COAST OF OAXACA IN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES LAND. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE REACHING A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 35-40 KT BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING. SINCE THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PART OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EVEN THOUGH A WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY THAT NORMALLY WOULD HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT 0000 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/2300Z 15.1N 94.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0600Z 15.5N 94.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 04/1800Z 16.8N 95.6W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:34 UTC