ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 2010 STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS TAKEN A FINAL TOLL ON ESTELLE AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED AROUND THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER...WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MODEST BURSTS OF WEAK CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON THE LACK OF ANY PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ESTELLE NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND GET DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON WHETHER OR NOT ESTELLE REMAINS A SEPARATE ENTITY OR GETS ABSORBED BY THE DISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...THE LATTER SEEMS MORE LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND GENERALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 17.3N 112.9W 25 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 17.1N 112.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24HR VT 11/1200Z 16.9N 112.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 12/0000Z 16.7N 111.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 12/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 13/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER ORRISON NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:32 UTC