ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 07 2010 THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST HAS MORPHED INTO A LARGE CURVED BAND AROUND THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE STORM. THE STORM LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN A FEW HOURS AGO...AND SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB. USING A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR ESTELLE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BY LATE SUNDAY. MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM BEFORE STEADY WEAKENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY BY ABOUT DAY 4 DUE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A COOL STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF ESTELLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...THE STORM IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES AFFECTED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE REMNANTS OF ESTELLE COULD BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LONG-RANGE AND MOVE FARTHER EAST THAN THE TRACK FORECAST INDICATES BELOW...AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 17.1N 108.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 17.3N 109.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 17.5N 112.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 17.5N 113.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 17.5N 114.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 11/1800Z 17.0N 114.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 12/1800Z 16.5N 114.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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