ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION RE-FORMING NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0600 UTC OF 25 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN ASCAT PASS AT 0436 UTC THAT SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 25-30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 290/9. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. BEYOND 72 HOURS ...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. WHILE THIS PATTERN WOULD USUALLY FAVOR A NORTHWARD TURN...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW BY THAT TIME AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE. THE DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...AND THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 16.3N 103.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 16.7N 104.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 17.3N 106.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 18.0N 107.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 18.7N 109.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 20.0N 111.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 11/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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