ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010 200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010 DARBY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL 10-N MI EYE FOR ABOUT THE PAST FIVE HOURS BUT HAS DISPLAYED AN OBLONG CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH T5.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT DARBY HAS MOVED INTO A FAVORABLE NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR OF HIGHER SSTS AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER THOSE WATERS FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW DURING THAT PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS DARBY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS...WHICH IS ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE EXPECT FOR SHIFOR. THE SHIPS RI INDEX DOES INDICATE A 1 IN 4 CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR DARBY TO STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOWER SSTS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO SHIPS AND LGEM. THE TRACK FORECAST IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. NEARLY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT GETS TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND THESE MODELS STALL DARBY BY DAY 2 FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION ON DAYS 4 AND 5...MOST NOTABLY INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL PATTERN...BUT DOES NOT INDICATE A POSITION AS FAR TO THE EAST ON DAY 5 AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN...WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET OUTLIERS. ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE GFS SHOWS ALMOST NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW AND THEREFORE KEEPS DARBY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RATHER HELTER-SKELTER GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ESSENTIALLY...THE STRONGER THE CARIBBEAN LOW GETS WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FARTHER TO THE EAST DARBY COULD BE LOCATED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 13.4N 100.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 13.5N 101.6W 100 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 13.6N 102.6W 95 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 13.4N 103.5W 90 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 13.4N 103.7W 80 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W 70 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 14.0N 103.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 14.5N 102.0W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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