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Hurricane CELIA (Text)

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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS WEAKENED THIS AFTERNOON.
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE EYEWALL
CONVECTION...AND THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED TO 25 N MI.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 115 KT...AND IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE
OF 115 KT.  CELIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND AND
DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER AND INTO A LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS REFLECT THIS SCENARIO AND SERVE AS
A BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/10...WITHIN THE EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE. LARGE-SCALE AND REGIONAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...
ALLOWING CELIA TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SYSTEM SPINS
DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW. THE NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 14.2N 119.0W   115 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 14.9N 120.4W    90 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 15.6N 122.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 16.0N 123.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 16.2N 124.3W    45 KT
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 16.4N 125.3W    30 KT
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT     30/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA
 
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