ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LISA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142010 700 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2010 LISA HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C AS SEEN IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS EYE IS ALSO CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS. SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM AROUND 2200 UTC BY TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 4.0...65 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO THAT VALUE. LISA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOMORROW AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR...BUT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2300Z 20.2N 27.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 21.0N 28.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 22.5N 28.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 24.1N 28.7W 55 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 25.3N 29.1W 40 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 27.3N 29.9W 30 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 29.0N 30.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:19 UTC