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Hurricane KARL (Text)

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HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF UP TO 76 KT IN A DEVELOPING EYEWALL...WITH
SURFACE WINDS ESTIMATES OF 60-65 KT FROM THE SFMR.  THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 983 MB.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...KARL IS UPGRADED TO
A 65-KT HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KARL
SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 36 HR TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. 
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS...
ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH KARL COULD
GET BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOTION...AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THUS...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
STEADILY...AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY.  THE LGEM MODEL FORECASTS 100 KT
IN 36 HR...THE SHIPS MODEL 85 KT...AND THE GFDL MODEL 97 KT.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A 95 KT INTENSITY AT LANDFALL AS A BLEND
OF THESE FORECASTS.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...KARL
SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 96 HR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 19.7N  92.8W    65 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N  93.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.3N  95.5W    85 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N  97.0W    95 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N  98.8W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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