ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009 1100 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009 ...RICK MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD....REMAINS DISORGANIZED... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY FOR THE COAST OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES...435 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. RICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES...250 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH RICK IS ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS THE STATES OF SINALOA AND DURANGO IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RICK WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS. ...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT INFORMATION... LOCATION...19.3N 111.7W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN NNNN
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