ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192009 800 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009 LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BECAME MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. BASED UPON INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND CONSENSUS T2.5 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA IS THE 16TH NAMED CYCLONE OF THIS RELATIVELY BUSY EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON. A 2055Z AQUA MICROWAVE PASS ALONG WITH THE LAST FEW VISIBLE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALLOWS FOR A MODERATELY CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 350/06. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP- LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF PATRICIA SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER THE CYCLONE IS PROJECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT THE LONGER RANGE...THE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO LEAVE A WEAKENING VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONGER SYSTEM AND ADVECT IT AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE LATTER SCENARIO AND IS A BLEND OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. PATRICIA HAS TWO...PERHAPS THREE...DAYS OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR BEFORE IT MOVES NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. CONVERSELY...THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE MORE MIXED WITH QUITE WARM SSTS ALONG THE CYCLONE'S PROJECTED TRACK...BUT FAIRLY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE STATISTICAL LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS PEAK PATRICIA NEAR 50 KT AT 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL HWRF AND GFDL MODELS SHOW A MUCH STRONGER CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO LGEM/SHIPS...BUT DOES INDICATE A MORE INTENSE TROPICAL STORM THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 17.9N 108.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 20.1N 109.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 21.1N 109.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 21.8N 109.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:30 UTC