ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182009 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 03 2009 OLAF IS CONTINUING TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A 130-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON DVORAK CI-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A 30-KT OBSERVATION FROM SHIP 3EUS AT 1000 UTC. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KT IN 24 HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING SEPARATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM ANY REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...OLAF SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OLAF IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 075/07. THIS PLACES THE CENTER WELL SOUTHEAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE LOCATION AND INITIAL MOTION. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF AND IS SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TAKING OLAF TOO FAR NORTHWARD GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION. RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OLAF WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 24.2N 115.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 24.7N 114.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 25.6N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:29 UTC