ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172009 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2009 NORA HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 2200 UTC THURSDAY...AND THEREFORE IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME. THE LOW COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IT WILL REMAIN OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C. HOWEVER...INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND A DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0500 UTC...AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A CONSENSUS OF THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCLUDING THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON NORA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 17.2N 122.2W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 12HR VT 25/1800Z 17.1N 123.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 26/0600Z 17.0N 124.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 26/1800Z 17.0N 126.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 27/0600Z 17.4N 128.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 28/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:28 UTC