ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162009 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 19 2009 THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE LAST CONVECTIVE BURST A FEW HOURS AGO. MARTY HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ONE RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER. BASED ON T-NUMBERS WHICH HAVE DECREASED TO 1.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...MARTY IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SHEAR. THEREFORE...A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND MARTY SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOUR OR SO. SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. SINCE MARTY IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 22.2N 116.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 22.6N 118.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 23.0N 120.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 20/1800Z 23.0N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 21/0600Z...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:28 UTC